Dear friends, we continue our series of publications on the speakers of the Central Asian Climate Change Conference.
Interview with Lilia Burunciuc, Country Director for Central Asia, the World Bank
Trend.az (regional news agency)
What is the general situation on climate change in Central Asia? Which problems stemming from climate change are most actual for the region? Which of these countries are most vulnerable to climate change and what are the reasons?
The Central Asian countries are among the most vulnerable to climate change in the region of Europe and Central Asia.
They are already experiencing the impacts of a changing climate, including warmer temperatures; glacier melt; increased variability in water resources; and frequent and costly weather-related hazards, such as floods and droughts.
Since the middle of the 20th century, average temperatures have increased from 0.5ºC in the south to 1.6ºC in the north affecting the hydrology and triggering glacier melting. Glaciers have already shrunk by one-third in volume since the beginning of the 20th century.
A big long-term challenge in this respect will be the expected season shift of river water flows: with loss of glaciers river flows will be shifting towards spring time and there will be less water available during the water growing season.
There are estimates that economic losses from weather-related disasters vary from 0.4% to 1.3% of GDP per annum for Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and the Kyrgyz Republic.
What makes Central Asian countries particularly vulnerable to climate change is their large economic dependency on natural resources as well as some legacy issues.
For example, from 30 to 60% of people in the region rely on agriculture for their incomes. However, agriculture is becoming increasingly vulnerable to climate change, and so are people who depend on it.
Almost 90% of the hydropower output in the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan depends on water availability, which will be less and less available in the coming future.
When we talk about legacy issues, we mean aging infrastructure and unsustainable land and water management practices. We are observing widespread land degradation, as well as insufficient maintenance of irrigation and drainage systems, although many countries spend a significant amount of public money for this. Uzbekistan, for example, spends about 60% of the total agricultural budget on operation and maintenance of irrigation systems.
Aging infrastructure is causing tremendous energy losses. They loose from 9% to 20% of energy in heat supply and electricity.
How does climate change affect different sectors of the economy of the Central Asian states?
Climate change will have negative implications for water availability in the region. It will also affect crop pests and animal diseases, intensity and frequency of which are increasing. They move freely across the borders, adding additional risks to farmers and the entire agri-food industry in the region.
Crop productivity will suffer. Yields could drop by as much as 30% in some parts of Tajikistan by the turn of the century. Droughts are already a major problem in Kazakhstan affecting up to 66% of the country’s land. The country is likely to be a future hotspot of heat stress for wheat. In the north of the country, a region with low precipitations and limited scope for irrigation, grain production already experiences serious droughts two out of every five years. Yields could drop from current levels by as much as 37% by 2030, and 48% by 2050, unless adaptive measures are taken.
By the turn of the century, desertification could affect up to half of Kyrgyz Republic’s territory (from roughly 15% in the 2000s), and large stretches of Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan would emerge as arid areas. In Uzbekistan, the growth in agricultural GDP dropped to 0.3% in 2018 from 6% in 2016, largely due to the impact of the drought.
Greater variability and uncertainty in the timing and amount of water available is also raising concerns for energy security, particularly for hydropower plants in small, unregulated catchments. Their productivity could drop by up to 20% in some locations by the 2050s in a 2ºC-warmer world.
What steps are the countries taking to prevent the negative impact of climate change and what is your further advice for the governments of the Central Asian states in this regard?
There are many opportunities to improve climate resilience in Central Asia. Tackling the issues of aging infrastructure, for example, can offer significant potential for “no regrets” actions that will enhance climate resilience, reduce carbon emissions and generate net economic gains. That could be modernizing energy infrastructure and minimizing energy losses or supporting the rehabilitation of irrigation systems and improving water management.
Taking energy efficiency measures is also very important. The region is yet to take this issue seriously. Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyz Republic and Kazakhstan, for example, are in the top-6 least energy-efficient countries in the region of Europe and Central Asia.
The countries should take steps to make agriculture more climate-resilient. This will involve strengthening agro-metereological infrastructure and services, introducing drought-resilient seeds, greater attention to soil fertility management and investment of water-saving technologies and improving irrigation and drainage systems.
For example, one of our projects that focused on improving irrigation and drainage systems in the Ferghana Valley helped to increase yield production up to 65% for wheat, 70% for vegetables and up to 300% for fruits at private and dekhan farm-level.
Further, countries should spend more public funds on research, monitoring and eradication of crop pests and animal diseases - whose incidence is increasing due to climate change.
Given the region’s interconnectedness, there is much to gain from a coordinated and integrated regional approach toward climate change. In particular, it could help improve the effectiveness of national climate actions through: (1) economies of scale—for example, shared research and knowledge efforts, including on cross-border issues such as pest and disease control and water management, faster learning through replication and scaling-up successful climate innovation across countries; (2) strategic planning and financing—for example, access to climate finance, collaboration with development partners; and (3) complementarities—for example, risk-management mechanisms in agriculture.
Countries of Central Asia recognize the importance of climate action and collaboration in this area. In 2014, the Climate Knowledge Forum, which has become a regional platform on learning, dialogue, and collaboration on climate change, concluded with a call from all five Central Asia countries for a regional program for climate resilience.
As a result, a new Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Program for the Aral Sea Basin (CAMP4ASB) project was launched by the World Bank and other partners in 2015. It is helping local communities to introduce adaptation measures – from a small greenhouse to a water-saving system –helping farmers across Central Asia to tackle most critical issues.
This year’s Climate Forum is planned for April.
How can these countries consider climate risks when planning their economies?
Despite awareness of the governments on climate change risks and their negative impacts on development, the full mainstreaming of climate action into policies and programs has not yet happened.
Not all Central Asian countries have countrywide adaptation strategies in place nor dedicated agencies to drive the climate adaptation agenda. As a result, response to climate risks is ad hoc and uneven across countries and sectors.
There is a need for more data and analytics, building stronger capacity in governments, empowering decision-makers to take decisions in the face of large uncertainties and working with communities at a grass root level, sharing information and knowledge on climate-smart solutions.
Time to act is now if we want to be prepared for what is to come.