Agriculture is the most important sector in the economy of Kazakhstan. It is no secret that the success of this industry largely determines the welfare of the entire population of the republic. Researchers have proven that productivity is 70% dependent on weather and only 30% on agricultural technology. Therefore, the accuracy of forecasts is now coming to the forefront. It largely depends on the fact whether farmers will collect an abundant harvest.
We decided to ask the director of the Department of Agrometeorological Monitoring and Forecasting of the RSE “Kazhydromet” Nonna Mikhailovna Loenko about the new models of harvest forecasting.
- Nonna Mikhailovna, tell us please, are crops really at great risk in the conditions of climate change? And what do experts do to help farmers?
- Given that most of the territory of Kazakhstan, especially its grain-growing areas, are traditionally considered a risky farming zone, the impact of weather on the agricultural industry is obvious. It’s been an issue and will continue to be.
The climate is changing, and this has not only been noticed by climatologists. Climate norms and the course of synoptic processes are changing. So, forecasters also have to adapt to the new conditions.
Agrometeorologists are developing a monitoring and forecasting system. Breeders are developing new varieties that are more adapted to the climate features of our region.
The Ministry of Agriculture is focusing on the development of “smart technologies” in the agricultural sector. And this also requires significant changes in the agricultural forecasting system. The local forecasts are currently not satisfying for the farmers. We need to develop targeted agrometeorological services with forecasts for specific farms.
- What new models of yield forecasting have appeared recently?
- The introduction of modern forecasting models is a significant contribution to the development of agrometeorological forecasting in Kazakhstan. And in this regard, the Regional Environmental Center for Central Asia helps us a lot in the framework of the project “Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Program for the Aral Sea Basin” (CAMP4ASB), with financial support from World Bank.
This project has been operating in Kazakhstan for several years. Trainings on hydrological modeling using the SWIM model were held, new tools for processing satellite data appeared.
Last year, we actively worked in agrometeorology. The experience of using modern forecast models for crop yields, satellite monitoring of fields was studied.
Models should be applicable in all countries participating in the project - in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan. The result from the introduction of models must meet modern requirements. In addition, in order to successfully adapt the model and to prove its relevance, it is necessary to have a sufficient amount of input and source data to be uploaded into the model.
- And how will this affect the quality of yield forecasts?
- The forecasts of Kazhydromet are now based on the average decade data. These methods of agrometeorological forecasts were developed back in the 80s of the twentieth century. Currently, technologies have gone far ahead. In addition, many problems with communication and measurement methods have been resolved a long time ago. Today we already use online weather stations.
Therefore, the forecast based on daily meteorological data and actual phenological “day to day” observations provides a more accurate analysis of the current situation, and the forecast is better justified.
If in the past season the forecast methods used in Kazakhstan gave the average crop yield justification of 84%, then the models that we plan to adapt in our territory give a turn over rate of more than 90%. In addition, it is possible to get a forecast of grid nodes, and not just of the area.
- Which other methods of forecasting yield are being used?
- Agrometeorologists use Earth remote sensing (ERS). This is an observation of the Earth's surface using artificial Earth satellites.
It is necessary for operational monitoring of agricultural fields and assessing the conditions of crops, for timely detection of areas of damage to crops by diseases and pests, for predicting crop yields (regarding the use of vegetation indices in forecasting models).
Satellite photos can be very helpful for the fields monitoring. But it is important that the resolution of the images is sufficient, at least 10 meters. For the correct analysis, you need a database with regular snapshots at least 2 times a week. This was always an issue. But such satellites exist. We try to choose the best option so that the results are justified
- What is Kazhydromet ready to offer the farmer in his/her struggle for the harvest now?
- Now we produce 26 items of agrometeorological products:
information on the actual state of crops,
forecast of soil moisture reserves before the beginning of spring field work,
forecast optimal sowing dates,
forecasts of ripening and yield, probabilistic forecast of drought, the sum of effective and active temperatures,
actual reserves of productive moisture, etc.
In 2019, the RSE "Kazhydromet" began to adapt the dynamic model for forecasting the yield of corn and sugar beets for the southern regions of Kazakhstan. The forecast model was revised taking into account the conditions of the region with the support of UNDP by the author of the model, professor of the Odessa Ecological University A.N. Polev and a scientist of the International Scientific Complex “Astana”, PhD in geographical sciences S. S. Baysholanov. This year we will release the first yield forecast for corn and sugar beets, but so far only in test mode.
We had experience in target servicing of farms in 2018-2019. 80 agricultural organizations of the North Kazakhstan, Almaty, and West Kazakhstan regions have been serviced free of charge. The area of farms was varying from 10 to 43,000 hectares, and the total sown area of the served territory amounted to over 400 thousand hectares.
We tried to show farmers all types of agrometeorological services that they can use to effectively plan field activities, including weather forecasts for fields and points and remote monitoring using remote sensing. The served fields were digitized, field masks were received. Vegetation indices were calculated and provided, by which one can judge the development of the green mass of plants - NDVI.
Based on the results of pilot projects, we received positive feedback, and some peasant farms have already expressed their readiness for further cooperation on a paid basis.
- Do you think that these services are available to the ordinary farmer?
- Of course, despite the usefulness of the information, some farms refused to conclude contracts due to a lack of money. But in fact, the price of services is quite reasonable.
For example, a package of services with synoptic and standard agrometeorological forecasts and information on the actual condition of the fields can cost about 300-350 thousand KZT per year. If the farmer is only interested in forecasts during sowing and harvesting, the amount will be 60-100 thousand KZT, depending on the period of service (two or three months). So, I think the cost, in fact, is not very high.
- Is the harvest forecast for this year already known?
- We prepare yield forecasts only in July. It is formed by too many factors. And the weather forecast, even a month in advance, does not come true very well. The first agrometeorological forecast for this growing season will be ready in April. This is a forecast of spring moisture and recommended sowing dates.
But right now we can say that this year’s wetting over a large part of the agricultural zone will be sufficient. This is a good reserve for the future harvest. But we do not exclude droughts in the summer.
WHAT THE FARMS CAN DO
- And can the farmers somehow secure themselves against weather surprises and prevent losses?
- The effect of droughts on plant development cannot be avoided. Obtaining a quality crop is possible only with the correct application of agricultural technology.
Adaptation to weather and climate change should be aimed mainly at the use of drought-resistant varieties, the transition to the heat-loving crops, less prone to drought. It is important to use irrigation in order to reduce the effect of droughts on plants and produce a quality crop.
Good platforms for discussing adaptation measures to climate change are also being organized as part of the CAMP4ASB project, special brochures are being developed to help farmers.
By the way, in the future, with the change (relocation) of climatic zones, it is also possible to increase the area under crops of thermophilic agricultural crops, previously not widely spread in Kazakhstan.
Climate change is not limited by the simple relocation of climate zones. We are all becoming witnesses of natural phenomena becoming more intense. Large hail, local rains that flood everything around for several hours, hurricane-force winds are no longer rare. More often, combinations of two, or even three, dangerous natural phenomena (strong wind and heavy rain, hail) began to be observed, which together cause much greater damage than if these same phenomena were observed separately. Therefore, already vulnerable agriculture needs support throughout the growing season.
For effective planning of activities in the fields, development of precision farming, Kazhydromet proposes to use relevant agrometeorological products. We hope that our information will provide an opportunity to get a richer harvest and increase labor productivity in agricultural production.
- Thank you for your answers, Nonna Mikhailovna! And I wish us all only good forecasts.
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Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Program for Aral Sea Basin
